2018 MMO Outlook

As 2017 wraps up and the momentum for 2018 continues to build, the Massive Overthinking crew has gathered once more to share their daring and playful forecasts for the upcoming year. Reflecting on our previous predictions, which proved to be quite accurate, we’re feeling confident about what’s on the horizon for the MMO landscape. So, what trends and surprises might 2018 hold for the genre? Here’s our take on what the future might bring.

This year is expected to be a pivotal one for the MMO genre, but not necessarily in the way fans hope. Many titles are poised for tentative releases or continuations, yet widespread breakthroughs seem unlikely. For instance, Star Citizen is rumored to finally launch, yet doubts remain about its ability to meet the sky-high expectations and deliver a truly immersive experience. It may serve as a decent space sim, but nothing revolutionary is anticipated.

Meanwhile, Chronicles of Elyria might finally release its long-anticipated MMO, but early impressions suggest it will mostly offer more demos rather than a fully realized world. Daybreak Games is likely to wind down PlanetSide 2 due to declining revenues, and the survival genre, exemplified by H1Z1, appears to be losing momentum, with no significant comebacks on the horizon. The arena-style gameplay popularized by PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds continues to dominate, yet Daybreak’s other projects may be too outdated to regain their former glory.

In the broader industry, Warner Bros., which owns Turbine, is expected to continue producing poorly received mobile spin-offs of beloved IPs. Fans remain hopeful that Asheron’s Call might someday see a revival, but pessimism persists. World of Warcraft’s next expansion will arrive, but it’s unlikely to match the success of previous releases, as the once-mighty Titan has fallen. Nonetheless, players will continue to log in temporarily, enjoying the game’s content until the next major patch.

Destiny 2 seems poised for continued struggles; Bungie appears to be having difficulty reviving its appeal, and the game's momentum is waning. While Amazon has entered the gaming scene, no major releases are expected in the near term. On the positive side, Elder Scrolls Online and Final Fantasy XIV are slated to perform steadily. ESO might introduce a lockbox feature—something that’s almost a ritual at this point—while FFXIV could add a costly vanity item, but nothing game-breaking like a powerful gear set.

VR gaming, particularly on consoles and mobile, will keep pushing forward, yet the PC scene—especially for MMOs—may see limited innovation beyond updates to existing titles like Sword Art Online. Mobile MMORPGs will proliferate, especially from Asian developers, but they likely won’t resonate strongly with Western audiences just yet. Personally, I find myself still trying to understand this market.

Nintendo will continue to flirt with the idea of MMOs, integrating social media events and narrative elements into multiplayer titles, but they remain hesitant to fully commit to creating a true MMO experience. Pokémon GO will persist in testing new features, with Generation 3 Legendaries unlikely to drastically alter the game’s meta. Niantic is expected to introduce mythical Pokémon like Mew or Celebi, though their releases may disappoint expectations, especially as distribution mechanisms remain a work in progress. By summer, the launch of Generation 4 could introduce features like 1v1 PvP or trading, and if luck is on their side, Niantic might finally integrate social media or messaging tools to boost community interaction. However, this could come with complications—possibly ethical issues—that might hinder progress. Still, if these hurdles are manageable, Pokémon GO could evolve into a more engaging MMO-like experience for dedicated fans.

In 2018, anticipation around New World will be tempered as early glimpses reveal a shift away from a pure sandbox MMORPG towards a gameplay style resembling PUBG, making it less of what some fans expected. Ironically, discussions about PUBG may fade from Western conversations by year's end as its popularity wanes.

Meanwhile, World of Warcraft's latest expansion is projected to outperform Legion, solidifying its presence, though a classic version likely won't arrive until late 2019. Overwatch's ambitions to dominate eSports appear unlikely to succeed imminently; however, any setbacks could result in lucrative opportunities for some insiders.

NCSoft is expected to leak details about the next Guild Wars 2 expansion, reigniting interest and speculation. WildStar might unexpectedly receive another year of life, possibly driven by renewed console plans, which could serve as a financial boon when Blade & Soul's console launch also proves profitable.

Legislative pressure will likely push more companies to adopt transparent policies regarding loot boxes, with efforts to preempt regulation while regulators continue to scrutinize the industry.

Destiny 2's momentum will diminish despite popular DLC releases, prompting Bungie to shift focus elsewhere. Conversely, Sea of Thieves is anticipated to attract a significant number of MMO fans, expanding its player base.

Star Citizen is on track to release Alpha 3.0 by March, with a legal resolution expected by summer. Nonetheless, the project won't fully launch in 2018, and subsequent promised phases are unlikely to materialize within the year.

Elder Scrolls Online will reveal a new expansion, sparking competition with Black Desert for dominance in the genre. Crowfall may finally launch, achieving modest success but not reaching blockbuster status. Camelot Unchained should enter beta by late spring, while Ashes of Creation will continue testing quietly without major breakthroughs.

Ship of Heroes is expected to find moderate success as one of the early playable superhero MMOs. Standing Stone and Daybreak will persevere, although H1Z1 remains in limbo without an official launch, and Parabolic is likely to resemble Overwatch clones.

Funcom will persist with ongoing updates for its maintenance-focused titles, including Secret World Legends. Trion will bring Rift to consoles, and Hilmar Pétursson's departure from CCP will leave EVE Online in its current state. BioWare's Star Wars: The Old Republic will continue to see minimal updates, unaffected by recent Star Wars media.

Cryptic will discontinue its Magic-themed MMO project, but PWE’s stable of games should perform adequately. The industry’s free-to-play strategies for classics like Ultima Online and Dark Age of Camelot will garner brief mainstream attention but fail to attract sustained new players.

If Lineage Eternal and Lost Ark launch, they are unlikely to replicate their initial Western impact from years past. A:IR (ArchLord II) will not debut in 2018, leaving fans waiting longer for new MMORPG experiences.

Throughout 2018, the gaming landscape was marked by anticipation, surprises, and some inevitable setbacks across the MMO genre. Early in the year, players eagerly awaited the launch of World of Warcraft: Battle for Azeroth, which finally arrived in early November after several false predictions. Its initial reception was mixed but improved over time, with new features like island expeditions and warfronts quickly gaining popularity despite balancing challenges. Conversely, traditional dungeon and raid activities experienced a slight decline in activity, leaving analysts uncertain about the game's long-term trajectory by year’s end. Interestingly, many players initially doubted the expansion's premise but found the gameplay unexpectedly engaging.

Mid-year saw the controversial return of World of Warcraft Classic servers, which experienced a brief surge in population before a rapid decline. Many critics argued that the management of these servers was flawed, blaming technical issues and imbalance rather than the nostalgic experience itself. Meanwhile, Final Fantasy XIV maintained its steady momentum with regular updates and announced its third expansion in November, taking players to new southern or western regions with confidence and consistency.

Guild Wars 2 started the year strong but faced a slowdown due to some contentious business decisions, leading to a reduced update schedule later on. Despite this, it continued to be a preferable alternative to the earlier Heart of Thorns era. EVE Online largely focused on stabilizing and expanding existing content, with optimism growing toward the year's end despite lingering concerns about the game's financial stability.

Cryptic Studios announced a new Magic: The Gathering MMO expected in late 2018 or early 2019, promising to attract longtime fans and newcomers alike, though it would retain some monetization elements like lockboxes. Star Citizen faced persistent issues with version 3.0, which revealed deep-seated problems hampering the game's progress amid increasing backlash over opaque funding practices. As for Squadron 42, progress remained slow, with no clear indication of a launch timeline.

WildStar continued its slow decline, with no substantial updates and speculation about its impending shutdown. The Elder Scrolls Online released two major updates; one well-received, echoing past successes, and another that fell short, illustrating a pattern of uneven progress. Meanwhile, Ascent: Infinite Realm launched with mixed reviews, but subsequent updates helped it gain momentum in Western markets. Black Desert expanded its expansive world, encouraging more player interaction, while TERA performed adequately on consoles despite showing signs of aging.

In the broader landscape, smaller titles faced turbulence. Daybreak Games struggled to replicate the success of H1Z1, which itself faced a decline after the initial burst of popularity with PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds. By year's end, H1Z1 appeared to be in serious trouble. Meanwhile, Amazon’s game studio remained silent, producing no notable releases.

Destiny 2 experienced a mid-year resurgence as critical bugs were addressed, clarifying its position as a more MMO-like experience, though rumors of a Destiny 3 remained absent. A wave of new titles was announced, some promising nostalgic systems reminiscent of classic MMOs, while others, like Chronicles of Elyria and Saga of Lucimia, faced shutdowns or delays.

Looking ahead, 2019 was expected to bring significant shakeups: established games shutting down, new titles rising in prominence, and an increasing blending of single-player and MMO elements. This era continued to blur genre boundaries, raising questions about what truly defines an MMO. Personally, I look forward to enjoying a burrito bowl as the genre evolves.

MMO Industry Outlook 2018

Predicting the trajectory of the MMO industry in the coming year is a daunting task, often filled with more uncertainty than clarity. Nonetheless, here are some speculative insights into what 2018 might hold.

While Amazon’s new world may not materialize as anticipated, there’s hope that John Smedley’s team will surprise us with a compelling project that reignites excitement within the community. Titles like Ashes of Creation and Crowfall are poised to gain momentum, attracting fresh attention and generating considerable buzz throughout the year.

In terms of established giants, World of Warcraft is expected to have a noteworthy year, driven by the launch of its latest expansion and the renewed interest in classic servers. However, the enthusiasm might be tempered by diminishing excitement following the somewhat lukewarm reception of Battle for Azeroth’s announcements.

The landscape of superhero MMORPGs appears to be thinning, with Player-Generated Successor titles vying for dominance. Among these, City of Heroes’ spiritual successors are likely to emerge as frontrunners, vying for players’ loyalty and attention. Meanwhile, Daybreak Games might unveil a new EverQuest installment—but don’t expect it to align perfectly with fan expectations.

Smaller developers like Secret World Legends and Broadsword Games will continue to deliver engaging updates and expansions, though these efforts may fall short of rekindling the same level of enthusiasm seen in earlier years. The industry’s focus on innovation seems to be shifting towards battle royale-style shooters, with the proliferation of copycat titles reducing the prominence of traditional MOBAs.

Camelot Unchained is expected to finally commence its long-anticipated beta testing phase around June, while Shroud of the Avatar’s launch might pass with little fanfare. Star Citizen, on the other hand, is likely to release version 3.0 in its alpha stage, albeit with persistent performance and stability issues.

Crowdfunding remains relevant, with 2018 potentially seeing two major MMO projects funded via Kickstarter that manage to stir significant community interest. Meanwhile, WildStar’s fate appears sealed, with a shutdown anticipated—an unfortunate conclusion for its dedicated fanbase.

On a lighter note, many gamers will find themselves immersed in Sea of Thieves for extended periods, losing themselves in its pirate-themed world for months on end.

Although I tend to miss the mark with predictions, I can’t resist sharing some holiday cheer for the gaming world ahead. Expect a major update to a beloved MMO, perhaps a second season or expansion that reignites excitement among veterans and newcomers alike. Fans will be captivated by unexpected plot twists involving iconic characters, leaving everyone eager for more.

Survival sandbox titles will continue to thrive, but developers will need to innovate with fresh gameplay hooks to stand out amid a crowded market. Meanwhile, after a long delay, Ark’s third DLC will finally arrive, disrupting the base game once again. In response, Wildcard will tease a new project entering early access, but surprisingly, some developers will choose to skip early access altogether, launching fully polished titles and surprising everyone.

Additionally, a new game will emerge that defies genre expectations, capturing hearts unexpectedly. The industry will see more fan conventions, providing opportunities for developers and players to connect, with at least one major announcement made during these events.

The EverQuest franchise will face a turbulent period—perhaps losing a key developer or dealing with legal issues—but it will persist into 2019. Warframe will continue its steady growth, attracting more MMO fans despite still being in closed beta territory. Meanwhile, a totally unexpected game that I adore will debut, challenging assumptions about genre boundaries.

Loot boxes, surprisingly, will appear more frequently even in single-player and co-op titles, including some in TV shows or streaming services. In response, innovative “no lootbox” mechanics will be introduced to address mounting criticism. Lastly, a long-standing secret in the gaming community will finally be revealed, adding a new layer of intrigue.

And in the realm of virtual worlds, nothing will match the depth and richness of Star Wars Galaxies, prompting endless nostalgic lamentations from fans like Bree and myself.

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